Takeaway – Established Western brands will continue to defend their global leadership positions for a while yet, but Chinese corporates are taking control of growing niches and new categories. Look for Chinese entities to disrupt industries through enforced localization and substitution – not head-to-head competition.
Welcome to the Multiconomy
Phase 1: Frenemies on a Glass Bridge
The status quo of US – China commerce can best be described as frenemies who need each other more than they like each other. Up until now, both Chinese and Western commercial systems have been multi-faceted and opportunistic. National policies have been one of many inputs in business decision-making.
This situation can be characterized as brittle, but not necessarily fragile. Think of our existing system as a strong glass bridge. It’s very stable – right up until the moment it starts to crack. Then it can no longer support its own weight, but is very difficult to repair.